– Commodities rallied, but financial assets declined for the week after Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech on Friday at Jackson Hole
– Energy stocks stood out – advancing 4.3% as all other factors, sectors, and styles struggled.
– Emerging markets climbed 0.5% on strong performance from China and Latin America.
– The US Dollar climbed to a 20-year high last week, and the Euro fell below parity with the dollar for the first time since November 2002.
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Market Outlook – Market Risk Index climbs to the highest level since February
World Wrap
– All risk assets closed down for the week. International equities and Real Estate were the worst performing asset classes.
– Consumer Staples, Energy, and Utilities were safe-havens – the sectors advanced by 1-2%
– The Middle East has been the best performing global region. The lead expanded with the region rallying 0.7% during a down week for global equities.
– The dollar bounced sharply off key support levels, advancing 2.4%. The dollar has risen 12.7% in 2022.
Market Outlook – Animal Spirits in August
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%