– Commodities rallied on an oil price rebound, and global stocks and bonds started the first week of 2024 with declines.
– Last year’s worst performing sectors, Energy and Utilities, advanced, while last year’s biggest winner (Tech stocks) fell by 4%.
– Frontier markets with heavy commodity exposure started the year with strong rallies.
– Natural gas and oil were strong, and the dollar rebounded, up more than 1% for the week.
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Market Outlook – Asset Managers’ exposure to US equity futures hits a record high.
Q4 2023 World Wrap
– US Equities outperformed global assets by a wide margin in 2023. Performance was big-cap driven, with the S&P 500 beating the median stock by the most since 1999.
– Sector, style, and factor performance was widely divergent – large cap tech was 2023’s biggest winner. Tech outperformed Utilities by the most since 1999.
– Emerging markets lagged developed markets, driven by weakness in China. China was the 3rd worst performing country in 2023 and has declined three years in a row.
– Global fixed income finished the year with respectable returns, with all of the gains coming in Q4. In a sign that animal spirits have returned, Bitcoin closed the year up 150%.
Market Outlook – Euphoric End to 2023
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%