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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global financial assets rallied across the board last week. Commodities were flat on a drop in oil prices.
– All sectors, styles and factors advanced. The most beaten up areas snapped back sharply.
– European stocks underperformed for the second week in a row, hindering relative gains on international indices.
– Treasury Bill yields climbed above 5.5%, the highest level since January 2001. Fed Funds are pricing in a 25bp increase for June.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– After outperforming for much of the last quarter, international equities slid behind US equities with a 1.9% decline last week.
– Evidence of a split market mounts. In an up market week, 9 of 11 sectors declined, 7 of 9 styles declined, and all but one factor fell.
– Developed Europe was a drag on foreign equities. Germany declined 2.5%.
– US Treasuries are set for a relief rally on the announcement of the US debt-ceiling deal.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%