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World Wrap
– Global stocks rallied and commodities faltered on falling oil prices.
– It has been a textbook risk-on rally as the “safest” sectors – Healthcare, Utilities, and Staples are the only three sectors with negative ytd returns.
– Emerging markets are up 10% year to date as China continues to outperform. China is up 17% ytd.
– US Dollar has fallen 10% from its 2022 high, entering its first correction since 2021.
Market Outlook – Psychology moves into the worst quintile of readings
Market Outlook – Muddy Waters
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%