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Q2 2024 World Wrap

Q2 2024 World Wrap

– US Equities led all major assets classes in Q2 2024. Momentum in big cap Tech stocks drove US Equity performance in Q2.
– Small Caps finished the first 6mos of 2024 in the red. This is the widest first six months outperformance of Large Caps versus Small Caps in at least 50 years.
– Emerging markets rebounded in Q2 with strong outperformance, led by Asia and Emerging European countries.
– Lumber futures fell more than 20% during the quarter. Yields on Treasuries rose, driving corporate bond spreads to the lowest since 2007.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global equities and commodities advanced, while Treasuries and interest rate sensitive sectors declined.
– Large cap stocks underperformed on declines in Technology stocks.
– Emerging markets outperformed despite falling equity prices in China and India.
– Higher oil prices drove broad commodity indices higher. Agriculture and metals commodity sectors were down.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– US Equities, Treasuries, and Commodities climbed, while International equities sold off.
– Another extremely narrow, Tech-driven market advance. Only 2 of 9 style boxes and 4 of 11 sectors advanced.
– Developed Europe dragged down international equities. Emerging markets climbed on strength in India and Taiwan.
– The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.2%, the second lower low since April.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Prices on Global equities and US Treasuries climbed, while commodities sold off.
– A narrow bifurcated stock market rally last week – only 2 of 9 style boxes and 5 of 11 sectors advanced.
– Emerging markets rebounded on strength in Asia. Mexico fell more than 11% after their election was perceived to give the Morena party too much power.
– All key commodity sectors declined. Gold prices fell on news that China’s central bank pausing gold purchases.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%